OK so if at first you dont succeed……its been over a year since i wrote something but recent events in my life have inspired me to come back. Basically i had 2 kids and gave up drinking…..writing is now my escapism! Hangovers are much better….

So i read back the posts below and realized…predictions are fking hard. I basically predicted a financial crisis in feb 2016, at the market lows (spoos have rallied 40% since then…YES, FOUR ZERO), which is something i thought only dumb money did. Turns out when all hell is breaking loose and the market is consistently selling off its very hard to be a contrarian and step in and buy. The biggest lesson though, is that i had no idea i acted like that – in my mind i wanted to buy the market at the lows but it was my risk averse, follow the crowd employers who didnt let me. Amazing how you remember the past differently to how it actually went down. Another reason for me to write this blog…….

So whats my view now? Bullish risk assets. I know what youre thinking: no surprise there given the rally we’ve had…but i think saying there is a long way to go i think is somewhat contrarian (how many WSJ articles have there been about how stocks are overvalued). My reason for this is I firmly believe something is going on in the markets that no one understands. And going on = driving prices higher. How else can you explain that Apple stock, one of the largest, most followed and relatively easy to understand biz models is up more than 50% in 10 months, without a material change in earnings forecasts.  Just think about that. Maybe the market was too bearish by not giving the company a high enough growth multiple, or is it because there is so much money flooding into the market now without any concern for fundamentals that have to buy the stock because its such a big part of the index? Ie a vicious circle – the more the stock goes up, the more people have to buy it. Apple is in value, growth, large cap, tech and dozens more ETFs that have to keep buying as they get inflows, which are growing given the poor performance of active managers. So ignoring how ridiculous a stock can be both growth and value, what breaks this vicious cycle? Really am not sure. The Fed still owns $4trn of assets- money that was effectively given to risk assets – they are talking about selling $10bn a month of assets- so in 3 yrs north of $3.5trn – in other words who cares? That unwind is still not enough to absorb to materially decrease the demAND FOR RISK ASSETS, THEY WAY IT INCREASED IT WHEN QE WAS first done. LEt me ask you this, if the FED had only bought $10bn assets a month would it have had the same impact that it undoubtedly has had on risk assets. I assert no.

“The Fed launched QE1 on November 26, 2008. By March 2009, the Fed’s portfolio of securities had reached a record $1.75 trillion. Nevertheless, the central bank continued to expand QE1 to fight the worsening recession. It announced it would buy $750 billion more in mortgage-backed securities, $100 billion in Fannie and Freddie debt, and $300 billion of longer-term Treasuries over the next six months”

Wow – i jut looked the above up – had no idea it was that quick! So logically, the inverse should hold? I know between the passive money and QE i am not saying anything thats not obvious / basic (most of my points are both)- i guess what i am saying is i think the market is underestimating its impact (u/estimating passive and overestimating impact on fed taper) just like it underestimated the initial QE. And closer to home the ECB is still buying a gigantic amount of bonds – far higher as a % of the market than the fed or BoJ ever did. HOnestly think estocks could be up 20-30% in the next 12 months (will probably regret that but thats my view) – not just because of the ECB but the passive money i.e. ETFs are growing in Europe – have a long way to catch up with the US – another reason why large cap stocks in europe arent up 50%

And on to Man Utd – i was right about LvG – his turgid football was just not good enough. And JM – is he much better? Well he has better players but i still have NO IDEA what type of football we play. Whats our system? We dont play intricate passes through the middle, we dont play with natural wingers, we dont counter attack…ugh. I went to the recent Chelsa game and we offered less than both our visits under LvG.

Time i write something again – whats changed since february? Well apparently, the world is not ending, spoos are within a hair of their all time highs (earnings keep getting revised lower), DB is not going bust (capital going down), China is going to have a soft landing (no credit bubble there!) and everything is cool in the gang. Oh, and united are in the cup final! What a difference a couple of months makes. However, fundamentally little has changed (applies to markets and man utd). The ECB is continuing to the keep the dream alive by ludricously buying IG coporate bonds in Europe (in case funding at 1% was simply too tough for them) – but what does this mean. Does feel like markets are finally recognising that the marginal benefit to more Cb easing is diminishing rapidly and some rather nasty side effects (impact of neg rates on bank earnings) are rearing their ugly head. So i just cant get  bullish, although i fear its only a matter of time before EUR corps start buying back stock en masse like their US brethern have been doing the past few years.  Still all feels like a greater fool trade to me. And as for credit..biggest.bubble.ever. The only bright side – have found something more boring than watching man utd – trading european credit! OK thats all for now – this has been rushed but will try to write more regularly.

ok so the italians (god bless them) appear to be in quite a bind here. they are telling you that some of their major banks (read: mph) are in trouble, despite their optically adequate capital ratios. ok, so just bail in bondholders you say! er…problem is they are all held by italian retail i.e. regular italian dudes that aren’t qualified to hold risky securities. torching them would likely mean a revolution in the country at a time in which europe can ill-afford another one of its members to lurch into crisis. ok..so bail them out! too big to fail! er…problem is the eu has passed laws prohibiting taxpayer bail outs of banks.  ok…so inflate your way out of the problem! er…too much debt, currency union etc etc. god knows how this ends..maybe the pope should weigh in with his opinion….all i know here is that there are no ‘good’ solutions…only ‘less terrible’ ones. speaking of terrible..new low for #MUFC. i get all the reservations around jm….the only retort is HOW COULD IT POSSIBLY BE WORSE. the post-ferguson era has shown us that stability/long termism in football is no longer possible…amazing parallels to the investing world…see i told you this combination made sense…

OK. In my mind there is no doubt we are staring down the barrel of a finacial crisis in Europe. We may already be in one. The market is really questioning the viability of some of the biggest banks in Europe…and i dont blame it. How on earth do you solve MPS? Bail in bondholders to raise capital? Er…€15bn of bonds held by Italian retail…good luck with that. Can you imagine what the political ramifications of doing that would be? OK…so just bail it out? Oh no hang on…state aid rules. Ooops. Talk about in between a rock and a hard place. DB..€1.7trn of assets and a €20bn market cap…something is seriously wrong here. No one believes the RWA gaming anymore. And so you’re left with banks in EU with €28trn assets vs. €1trn market cap…yet credit still trading at 1-2%. Someting has to give. There is simply too much debt, too much bad debt…the great deleveraging is nothing more than a myth. What do you do aside from being scared….own cash and gold. This is going to be a long cycle of distress…

In happier news, United win 3-0 against stoke. 3 goals! Woah. Martial does look like the real deal. But most interesting part of the win…it was done so with <50% possession. Take note, Louis…..only other comment is i continue to be amazed ny leicester…incredible last 2 games. Really look like the real deal.

week 2: made it this far. a few things on my mind – for the first time in my 26 years as a united fan there was a part of me (a significant part, maybe even >50%) that actually wanted us to lose on Friday (away to Derby in the FA cup). what blasphemy! i just can’t see LvG turn things around and i see this as a) delaying the inevitable and b) reducing our chances of getting in JM (i assume pep is a done deal at city). also got me thinking – a lot of commentary on woodward being the ‘rainmaker’ and the only guy whose opinion counts at old trafford. anyone actually know if the guy has a deep knowledge of the game? his transfer policy seems at best ‘inconsistent’.

on to markets…japan going more negative? are you kidding me? i just don’t understand the concept of pumping more drugs into a patient when its clear (to any rationale human?) that, as the verve eloquently put it, the drugs don’t work (they just make you worse). Meanwhile 5yr Bunds power through neg 50….one day we are all going to look back on this and think “that was f**king nuts”. the amazing fixed income bubble somehow keeps growing…with the ecb determined to announce something in march anyone have any idea when this will all end? answers on a postcard please….

For about a year now, I have been thinking about starting a blog. Well, seems like that time is finally here. I guess the desire stems from the answer to the “what do you want to be when you grow up” question…which for me was a journalist. Sadly i never made it, instead ending up as a trader at a large hedge fund (much less interesting). Which brings me to the second half of this blog title…finance…or more accurately financial markets and investing. Behind sport (football), it is the next biggest passion in my life. So i thought i would combine the two, as well as my childhood career aspirations, and start this blog. Only cost me $15 (should read pounds but Apple Mac was purchased in the U.S. and i don’t know where the GBP sign is…ugh) – what a bargain. And what do i hope to achieve? Dunno really, maybe a handful of people read it (am still not sure how anyone will stumble across this) and feel ‘moved’ enough to write a response to my nonsense. But i am 95% sure (betting is my job) no one will ever read these ‘wise words’ <sarcasm>, and after a year (length of time i think i can keep this up) this blog will be destined for blogging bankruptcy, with no white knight to save it. Finally a reference to the title – I am a huge Manchester United fan. They meekly lost 1-0 at home to mighty Southampton today, turning in yet another inept and limp attacking performance. I started following United avidly around 1990, and for those of you that know your football, you know that was pretty much the start of one of the biggest bull market for any sporting team anywhere in the world, as United enjoyed unprecedented levels of success under Sir Alex Ferguson for over 2 decades. But like all bull markets, it seems like this one has come to end. Are United in a multi-year structural bear market? And did the Fed by raising rates by a meagre 25bp precipitate the start of a bear market in risk assets globally? Are petrodollar nations conducting a huge fire sale of assets globally which is causing the huge volatility in financial markets? Isn’t lower oil in the medium term a huge positive for the majority of the world, and is effectively the massive fiscal stimulus that many commentators have been calling for (particularly in Europe) which could drag us out of this zero/low growth world we all find ourselves in? or is there simply still too much debt in the world? Should United sack LvG and replace him with Jose Mourinho while they still have the chance? Or should they hold out for Pep Guardiola in the unlikely event he doesn’t go to Man City? Or should they stick with LvG (surely not)? These are just some of the issues that are on my mind currently, and I hope to debate them all (with myself) over the coming weeks. Thanks for reading.