A Depressing Start

For about a year now, I have been thinking about starting a blog. Well, seems like that time is finally here. I guess the desire stems from the answer to the “what do you want to be when you grow up” question…which for me was a journalist. Sadly i never made it, instead ending up as a trader at a large hedge fund (much less interesting). Which brings me to the second half of this blog title…finance…or more accurately financial markets and investing. Behind sport (football), it is the next biggest passion in my life. So i thought i would combine the two, as well as my childhood career aspirations, and start this blog. Only cost me $15 (should read pounds but Apple Mac was purchased in the U.S. and i don’t know where the GBP sign is…ugh) – what a bargain. And what do i hope to achieve? Dunno really, maybe a handful of people read it (am still not sure how anyone will stumble across this) and feel ‘moved’ enough to write a response to my nonsense. But i am 95% sure (betting is my job) no one will ever read these ‘wise words’ <sarcasm>, and after a year (length of time i think i can keep this up) this blog will be destined for blogging bankruptcy, with no white knight to save it. Finally a reference to the title – I am a huge Manchester United fan. They meekly lost 1-0 at home to mighty Southampton today, turning in yet another inept and limp attacking performance. I started following United avidly around 1990, and for those of you that know your football, you know that was pretty much the start of one of the biggest bull market for any sporting team anywhere in the world, as United enjoyed unprecedented levels of success under Sir Alex Ferguson for over 2 decades. But like all bull markets, it seems like this one has come to end. Are United in a multi-year structural bear market? And did the Fed by raising rates by a meagre 25bp precipitate the start of a bear market in risk assets globally? Are petrodollar nations conducting a huge fire sale of assets globally which is causing the huge volatility in financial markets? Isn’t lower oil in the medium term a huge positive for the majority of the world, and is effectively the massive fiscal stimulus that many commentators have been calling for (particularly in Europe) which could drag us out of this zero/low growth world we all find ourselves in? or is there simply still too much debt in the world? Should United sack LvG and replace him with Jose Mourinho while they still have the chance? Or should they hold out for Pep Guardiola in the unlikely event he doesn’t go to Man City? Or should they stick with LvG (surely not)? These are just some of the issues that are on my mind currently, and I hope to debate them all (with myself) over the coming weeks. Thanks for reading.

A Depressing Start

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