ok so the italians (god bless them) appear to be in quite a bind here. they are telling you that some of their major banks (read: mph) are in trouble, despite their optically adequate capital ratios. ok, so just bail in bondholders you say! er…problem is they are all held by italian retail i.e. regular italian dudes that aren’t qualified to hold risky securities. torching them would likely mean a revolution in the country at a time in which europe can ill-afford another one of its members to lurch into crisis. ok..so bail them out! too big to fail! er…problem is the eu has passed laws prohibiting taxpayer bail outs of banks. ok…so inflate your way out of the problem! er…too much debt, currency union etc etc. god knows how this ends..maybe the pope should weigh in with his opinion….all i know here is that there are no ‘good’ solutions…only ‘less terrible’ ones. speaking of terrible..new low for #MUFC. i get all the reservations around jm….the only retort is HOW COULD IT POSSIBLY BE WORSE. the post-ferguson era has shown us that stability/long termism in football is no longer possible…amazing parallels to the investing world…see i told you this combination made sense…
Month: February 2016
Armageddon
OK. In my mind there is no doubt we are staring down the barrel of a finacial crisis in Europe. We may already be in one. The market is really questioning the viability of some of the biggest banks in Europe…and i dont blame it. How on earth do you solve MPS? Bail in bondholders to raise capital? Er…€15bn of bonds held by Italian retail…good luck with that. Can you imagine what the political ramifications of doing that would be? OK…so just bail it out? Oh no hang on…state aid rules. Ooops. Talk about in between a rock and a hard place. DB..€1.7trn of assets and a €20bn market cap…something is seriously wrong here. No one believes the RWA gaming anymore. And so you’re left with banks in EU with €28trn assets vs. €1trn market cap…yet credit still trading at 1-2%. Someting has to give. There is simply too much debt, too much bad debt…the great deleveraging is nothing more than a myth. What do you do aside from being scared….own cash and gold. This is going to be a long cycle of distress…
In happier news, United win 3-0 against stoke. 3 goals! Woah. Martial does look like the real deal. But most interesting part of the win…it was done so with <50% possession. Take note, Louis…..only other comment is i continue to be amazed ny leicester…incredible last 2 games. Really look like the real deal.