Back in the Swing

Time i write something again – whats changed since february? Well apparently, the world is not ending, spoos are within a hair of their all time highs (earnings keep getting revised lower), DB is not going bust (capital going down), China is going to have a soft landing (no credit bubble there!) and everything is cool in the gang. Oh, and united are in the cup final! What a difference a couple of months makes. However, fundamentally little has changed (applies to markets and man utd). The ECB is continuing to the keep the dream alive by ludricously buying IG coporate bonds in Europe (in case funding at 1% was simply too tough for them) – but what does this mean. Does feel like markets are finally recognising that the marginal benefit to more Cb easing is diminishing rapidly and some rather nasty side effects (impact of neg rates on bank earnings) are rearing their ugly head. So i just cant get  bullish, although i fear its only a matter of time before EUR corps start buying back stock en masse like their US brethern have been doing the past few years.  Still all feels like a greater fool trade to me. And as for credit..biggest.bubble.ever. The only bright side – have found something more boring than watching man utd – trading european credit! OK thats all for now – this has been rushed but will try to write more regularly.

Back in the Swing

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